Russians Up in Arms Over the Crisis?

By Jed Holmes, Senior Policy Analyst, The PBN Company, Moscow

Russian Internet search engine Yandex has seen a surge in the number of searches for “pistols”.

A virtual surge in handgun interest

The news portal BFM.RU* was the first to report on this phenomenon in mid-January. Curious to see whether this trend was holding, I did a little research of my own on Yandex’s search statistics site.

Searches for “pistols” rose from an average of around 150,000 per month from March through September 2008 to approximately 200,000 in October-November 2008 and 280,000 in December 2008-January 2009. In February 2009, the last month for which statistics are currently available, the number of searches leaped to over 450,000.**

However, the threefold jump in the number of searches seems a little less ominous when the general rise in site traffic is considered.  The relative share of pistol searches only significantly climbed in February, when it rose 80% against the average for the previous 11 months.

Similarly, the statistics show a threefold leap in the raw number and 80% increase in the share of searches for “purchase weapon” from the March-October 2008 average to February 2009.

Perhaps I should point out that in Russia civilians are strictly forbidden by law to possess handguns.***  Russian gun regulations are designed to allow gun ownership for hunting purposes, and gun ownership for self-defense purposes is not seen as a legitimate aim in and of itself.

Nonetheless, anecdotal information suggests that gun stores are doing well despite the crisis.  They also report higher interest in non-lethal self-defense items such as pepper sprays and gas guns.

Why? Remembering Katrina…

If fear of gun control appears to be the driving force behind the massive new gun and ammo buying spree in the US, in Russia many fear a massive crime wave as economic conditions worsen.

Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) reports that a majority of Russians (52%) say they have noticed a rise in crime in the past 5-6 months.  This trend has been less felt in small towns and villages (38%), while three-fourths of Moscow and St. Petersburg residents perceived the higher level of crime and 64% said it will only get worse as a result of the crisis.

And unfortunately official statistics confirm a real rise in violent crime.  In Moscow, the number of murders was up 16% in January and 13.5% in February year-on-year.  The number of “crime-related deaths” (manslaughter) was up 44% in the capital in January (no data for February).

My friend Maxim, who recently took advantage of his newly unemployed status to complete the time-consuming and bureaucratic Russian gun-licensing procedure, said that the rising crime rate was a motivating factor for him in purchasing a firearm.  He mentioned the stories of murder and mayhem on the streets of New Orleans following the Hurricane Katrina.  “If a natural disaster can turn a major city in the United States – supposedly one of the most civilized countries – into a lawless mayhem, then it would take much less for this to happen in Russia,” he warned, suggesting that Russia might be approaching calamity.

While I remain optimistically skeptical of doomsday scenarios, a surprising number of my friends and acquaintances here in Russia have mentioned the Katrina’s aftermath as a sign of the fragility of civil order.  For them it is a reminder that while hoping for the best, one should also keep a finger in the wind.

* The statistics currently provided by Yandex do not match the figures provided in the January 15, 2009 article appearing on the BFM.RU website.
** Here and throughout, the statistics provided are for all users of the Russian-language Yandex search engine worldwide.  The statistics indicate greater interest in the weapons theme from outside Russia, but I was unable to determine to what extent this impacts the overall growth trend.
*** There is one small exception.  In 2003 the Law on Weapons was amended to allow civilians to keep guns bestowed by the Russian president or government or by foreign governments regardless of whether the gun would otherwise be considered illegal.  Civilians are permitted to own smoothbores and rifles, but the process for acquiring one is quite time consuming.  It entails a visit to the medical clinic to verify that you can see straight, think straight and have no traces of narcotics in your blood stream, a test on gun and hunting regulations, a hunting club membership, a gun safe in your house and no criminal record. Then you receive a license to own a smoothbore for five years.  At the end of those five years, if you haven’t had any quail-hunting accidents or run-ins with the law, you can apply for a license for an ordinary rifle.

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4. Growing consumption the only bright spot in Russia’s latest numbers
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