Is Medvedev’s “Go Russia!” Going Anywhere?

By Martina Bozadzhieva, The PBN Company, Washington, DC

On September 10th President Medvedev surprised both Russian and international observers with an unexpectedly honest and critical article about Russia’s strategic challenges. Medvedev decried Russia’s “primitive raw materials economy, chronic corruption,” “inefficient economy…weak democracy,” and “negative demographic trends,” causing a flurry of comment and speculation. The fact that the article appeared in Gazeta.ru, an online news source often critical of the Russian government, only made it more unusual.

The initial reaction was one of skepticism, especially among Russians who were asking why he published such a scathing commentary now. Having been president of the country for a year and a half, critics charge that Medvedev hasn’t done anything to solve the problems he identified. A common criticism by both journalists and readers who posted comments on the Gazeta website was that Medvedev’s ambitious agenda for turning Russia into a high-tech, knowledge-based economy was impossible without true political liberalization. Very few seemed to buy Medvedev’s argument that “the more intelligent, smarter and efficient our economy is…[the more] our political system and society as a whole will also be freer, fairer and more humane.”

Many observers considered the article’s message to be yet another example of Medvedev’s tendency to speak eloquently about democracy and liberalism without doing enough to turn his words into reality. Others , however, have started to see “Go, Russia!” as a part of a larger attempt by Medvedev to separate himself politically from Prime Minister Putin. Medvedev’s statement before the Valdai forum that he might run for a second term has been interpreted as a part of an emerging pattern.

One litmus test of how serious the Russian president is about pursuing his modernization agenda could be more substantial personnel changes in the Kremlin. Since assuming the presidency, Medvedev has mostly kept his predecessor’s staff, a powerful group that arguably has vested interests in perpetuating Putin’s policies.

In this context, Medvedev’s appointment on October 7 of two new speechwriters - one as his head speechwriter and the other one to work alongside Vladislav Surkov, First Deputy Chief of Staff - might have a larger significance. Analysts are divided on whether the move is a first step in an overhaul of Putin’s supporters in the administration, or whether it is just a cosmetic change of no importance. Meanwhile, there are rumors that more changes in the administration are in the offing, including replacing the head of the presidential administration with the current justice minister, Alexander Konovalov.

In addition, in the past few months Medvedev has disagreed with Putin on how Russia is to join the WTO, a debate he seems to have won when Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus announced on October 16 that they would join individually rather than together as a Customs Union. In terms of concrete actions, however, he has not substantially challenged Putin’s hold on power.

Behind the different perspectives on the significance of the president’s moves lie different assessments of Medvedev’s ability and desire to establish himself as a leader in his own right - and potentially to challenge Putin. Russia does have a history of leaders (Gorbachev and Putin, to name two) keeping a low profile for a few years after being elected as they consolidate their power, and then coming out to challenge openly the status quo. However, to make such a move Medvedev would need a strong support base for his agenda, both among the population and within Russia’s political elite. This might explain why “Go, Russia!” was clearly targeted at Russians critical of the government and interested in greater political as well as economic reform. It might also indicate that more changes to the Kremlin staff are forthcoming.

At the same time, there is some serious skepticism about Medvedev’s ability to mobilize popular support for his goals, not because many Russians disagree with his assessment of Russia’s problems, but because few believe Medvedev is willing and able to face the inevitable opposition. Several comparisons between the messages of “Go, Russia!” at Gorbachev’s glasnost were not optimistic about the prospects of the strategy. Medvedev himself seems to recognize the difficulty of mobilizing popular support. In his article he recognizes that Russians are in the habit of “relying on the state…or anyone else but themselves in solving their own problems.” Paradoxically, or perhaps predictably, his agenda is based precisely on the assumption that the state will lead society in reforming Russia.

As is typical, some of the more interesting questions in Russian politics remain veiled in mystery. Whether “Go, Russia!” is a crystal ball into Russia’s future remains to be seen.

Possibly related posts:

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2. Russia: Deepening Crisis or Road to Recovery?
3. [Obama in Moscow] Not a Full Reset but a Definite Re-Start
4. Putin’s First Annual Address to the State Duma
5. Pigs Are Still a Problem, But Russia’s WTO Accession Chances Are Looking Up